As I was scrolling through the archive of blog posts, it somewhat astounded me that I had yet to comment on one of the most momentous events of 2011, that of the Arab Spring and the revolutions that have engulfed the Middle East and North Africa. Yet, what more could I say on an issue that has saturated media coverage and on which various experts from politics, economics and academia have thoroughly analyzed. I will provide my own perspective on the issue, with perhaps a shift from the traditional policy perspective towards a more personal one.
Many have labelled the Arab Spring and the attendant uprisings as a vindication of the ideology of democracy. Indeed, it is undeniable that the protesters across the Middle East and North Africa truly desire democratic governments to replace the dictatorial or authoritarian ones that they are currently under. However, in looking at the desire for democracy, I perceive it as merely a means to an end, something that the protesters believe gives expression to their desire for the rights and dignities to which they have been deprived of for so long. No one can plausibly deny that the uprisings had a very strong economic root. People, especially the Arab youth were incensed by rising unemployment, economic destitution and the lack of opportunities that bred an atmosphere of hopelessness. The struggle for change is perhaps largely borne out of a desire for an improvement of one's standard of living.
Yet one cannot deny the political side of these uprisings. The desire for change is perhaps some intrinsically human. People never seem to be be entirely satisfied with a government or system that remains in power for too long, even if it is a good system. However, the exarcebating factor in the Arab world is that the political systems are sometimes simply rotten. Vast economic inequalities combined with a narrow power base means that for the vast majority of the population, political participation or influence is unthinkable. Coupled with brutal repression, which on many occasions merely stiffened the resolve of the protesters, it provided an incendiary spark for people to demand the perhaps basic right of being able to feel safe in their own country, to be able to perceive a better future for themselves and to believe that the individual matters.
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| Protesters in Bahrain |
However as the year draws to a close, only in Tunisia is there a concrete sense of optimism. The birthplace of the Arab Spring, following the self-immolation of a young vegetable seller, it is so far the only country that has instituted elections with the moderate Islamist Ennhada party winning over two-fifths of the vote. It is remarkable that Islamists could engage secular political parties and form a coalition government. The peaceful nature of the revolution that overthrew the Tunisian dictator Ben Ali also perhaps set a better foundation for change. Yet concrete change cannot merely be achieved through the institution of the ballot box. The new Tunisian government must also create economic opportunities for the Tunisian people so as to address what is perhaps the fundamental cause of the Arab awakening.
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| Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia |
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| Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Ennhada |
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| Ousted Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali |
In Libya, we might perceive a success. After all, it has been lauded in much of the Western media as a case study for successful military intervention in the Arab world (backing from the UN Security Council, support by Arab nations and a non-American dominated military effort). Yet the success of NATO's military intervention whilst undeniably significant in preventing the wholesale slaughter of the opposition by Gaddafi, also caused undoubtably many civilian causalities. Whilst not wishing to belittle the efforts of Libya's NTC, the various reports of abuses, reprisals and the wholesale destruction of Sirte and the suspicious circumstances of Gaddafi's death do not give Libya the same positive beginning of a transition that Tunisia enjoys. And what of the Libyan youth, many of whom were militarily involved in the struggle against Gaddafi. A militarized population is a dangerous thing, especially in a tribal country like Libya. Disarming the militias and bringing about national reconciliation and political change in Libya will be a tremendous challenge for any Libyan government and we can only hope that they prove up to the task in rebuilding Libya.
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Protests against Gaddafi
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Mahmoud Jibril, leader of the NTC during the Libyan Civil War
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| Gaddafi, former Libyan leader |
Egypt however has seen perhaps a reversal of the revolution that toppled longstanding strongman Hosni Mubarak. What makes Egypt so crucial midst all the Arab countries is that it is seen as one of two pivotal Arab nations. Cairo and Riyadh (capital of Egypt and Saudi Arabia respectively) perhaps form the axis of the Arab world. Egypt, with one of the largest Arab populations, a large military and the home of the Arab League is the most important state to have undergone a revolution. Yet, it seems that little of the old guard have been removed and the military, under Field Marshal Tantawi still remain in charge although promises of a transfer to civilian authority have been given. However, the mood in Tahir Square remains defiant, especially with the appointment of a new PM (one who served under the Mubarak regime). Regardless of his positive credentials, it is perhaps understandable that the protesters would be furious at such attempts to install what they see as members of the old guard back into the Egyptian political scene. What happens in Egypt will have repercussions far greater than that of Libya and Tunisia. Egypt transformation and transition will be closely watched by the world, especially that of its Israeli neighbour for whoever ends up ruling in Cairo, will end up leading one of the Arab world's preeminent states. We can only hope that that transition will be a positive one.
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| Hosni Mubarak, ousted Egyptian leader |
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Protesters at Tahrir Square, Cairo
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But now much of the world's attention is on Syria and on the Assad regime. The opposition and the regime seemed to have reached a deadlock with the regime's military suppression of the mass protests across the country being able to deter the protesters. With members of the Syrian Army defecting to the opposition and creating the Free Syrian Army, the conflict has definitely transited from one of peaceful demonstrations to one of violent uprising. Yet Syria presents a complex case. The political centre (Damascus) and the economic centre (Aleppo) have largely remained quiet. Furthermore, sectarian divisions between Sunnis, Shiites, Christians, Kurds and Alawites with some groups supporting the regime more than others, and the more privileged business class still remaining on the side of the regime, there is a real concern that Syria could degenerate into a civil war that would probably engulf Lebanon for in Lebanon, pro and anti Assad supporters exist. Not to mention the Islamist group of Hezbollah in that country. Calls by the protesters for a foreign military intervention like the one executed in Libya have gone unanswered by the Western world. The West (effectively NATO), has no stomach or desire for an entanglement in Syria. Memories of the American invasion of Iraq and the debacle that ensued remain fresh. Embroilment of foreign military forces in Syria may cause the same sort of civil war that engulfed Iraq. Furthermore, the implacable opposition by China and Russia on any form of foreign intervention is likely to render the UN ineffective and enable to issue a firm stance. We have seen efforts, commendable efforts, by the Arab League to address the Syrian issue. Yet more needs to be done in order to either bring about regime change or effect a ceasefire and an end to the bloodshed. Perhaps in the near future, Turkey, which has announced frustration with the Assad regime may take the lead on the Syrian issue. The world can thus only hope that the bloodshed does not grow worse and comes to an end soon.
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| Protests against Syrian leader Bashar Al Assad |
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| Syrian President Bashar Al Assad |
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| Pro-Assad rally |
Recently in Yemen, the news that Ali Abdullah Saleh would relinquish power in a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) backed deal opens up a new chapter in Yemeni politics, but it also presents a whole new set of challenges. Many Yemenis are highly displeased by the fact that Saleh would be immune from prosecution. Furthermore, the deal still leaves much power in the hands of the old guard. It is thus highly questionable that the protesters would accept such an arrangement for long, if at all. With renegade commanders, angry protesters and uncontrollable tribal factions, there is a real possibility of Yemen degenerating into civil war.
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Protests in Sanaa, Yemen
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| Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemeni President (soon to step down) |
With such negativity and uninspiring outcomes (save for that of Tunisia), it would seem to many that the Arab Spring has turned into an Arab Winter. Yet, I have faith that this will not the final end of things. We have seen the power of the Arab street and of how ordinary people have fought for their dignity and their aspirations. It seems equally difficult for me to accept that the same people would back down in the face of regime resistance. A revolution is difficult to steal after all.
